Ahoy there Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
Last week’s market action was like watching a cat decide whether to jump off a shelf—hesitation, commitment, regret, and then chaos.
SPX pushed through the bull trigger on Wednesday, only to whip back through the hedge & bear trigger, finally showing some real movement on Friday. But before we get too excited, SPX is still stuck inside a larger range, with 6000 as the next key battleground.
Will we see a range breakout or another rejection?
Let’s dive in.
Deeper Dive Analysis:
SPX Moves – But Is It Just Another Range Play?
Last week gave us plenty of action, but SPX hasn’t truly escaped its larger range yet.
📌 What happened last week?
- SPX broke the bull trigger on Wednesday 🚀
- Immediately flipped back through the hedge & bear trigger 🤦♂️
- Friday’s move finally opened things up 🔓
Now, we’re eying 6000 as the next decision point.
📌 Two potential setups:
- ✅ Range Reversal – Price rejects 6000 and moves back inside the range
- ✅ Breakout Trade – SPX clears 6000, confirming a new leg up
Either way, I’ll be watching closely for the next trade setup.
VIX Says ‘No Crash… Yet’
📉 The volatility index (VIX) remains below 20, meaning:
- No imminent crash signals 🛑
- Fear is elevated but not panicking
- Still room for surprises, but not full-blown chaos (yet!)
If VIX jumps past 20 and keeps climbing, then we’ll talk about more extreme downside risk.
Overnight Futures – A Small Bounce, But No Turn Yet
🌅 Futures are slightly green, but they don’t confirm:
- A major bullish turn ❌
- A full-blown breakdown ❌
Right now, it’s more noise than signal.
What’s Next?
📌 I remain bearish on my income swing trades 📉
📌 Waiting for confirmation—either:
- Bullish reversal (v-shaped price action shift) 🔄
- Bearish breakdown (clean range break below 6000) 🚨
For now, it’s another waiting game—but one that could pay off big when the next major move arrives.
Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? In 2010, the Flash Crash wiped out nearly $1 trillion in market value in just 36 minutes, only to recover almost entirely by the end of the day. The culprit? A single trader’s algorithm running wild.
💡 The Lesson? Sometimes, market chaos isn’t about fundamentals—it’s just a rogue algorithm losing its mind.
Happy Trading,
Phil