Ahoy there Trader! ⚓️
It’s Phil…
We expected roller-coaster swings this week, and the market hasn’t disappointed. The price action feels oddly familiar, reminiscent of early 2022, when a failed all-time high attempt led to a slow, choppy bear market.
Right now, the market is stuck at a key decision point—dithering at the lower range like it can’t decide whether to break down or bounce back up. ADD data leans slightly bullish, suggesting a possible range-bound chop with an upward bias, unless sellers take full control and push us into the February/March correction cycle.
No need to guess—I’m hedged and ready for either outcome. The only thing left to do? Wait for the market to tip its hand.
Deeper Dive Analysis:
The market is moving exactly as expected—lots of noise, little commitment, and price action that mirrors early 2022, just before the slow-motion bear market began.
📌 What’s Happening Right Now?
- Markets failed to make new highs and are now chopping near the range lows
- The last time we saw this structure? Early 2022 before a major shift downward
- Price is hesitating, signalling traders are waiting for a catalyst
📌 Two Possible Outcomes:
1️⃣ A Range Reversal (Bullish Scenario)
- ADD data suggests a short-term bullish bias
- A grinding, sideways move with an upward tilt is likely
- Ideal for small, quick trades—but no trend confirmation yet
2️⃣ The February-March Correction Cycle (Bearish Scenario)
- If support fails, sellers could accelerate the move lower
- Seasonal trends often bring a correction this time of year
- Watching for signs of a decisive breakdown
📌 How I’m Approaching This Market:
✅ Staying hedged so that a move in either direction is fine
✅ Being patient—waiting for a strong move before committing capital
✅ Avoiding impulse trades—letting the market tell me what’s next
Traders who rush in too early this week could get chopped up in the indecision, while those who wait for a clear confirmation will be in the best position to capitalize.
Fun Fact
📢 Did you know? The biggest one-day percentage drop in history wasn’t 2008—it was Black Monday in 1987, when the Dow crashed 22.6% in a single day.
💡 The Lesson? Markets can collapse out of nowhere, but structured traders with hedges and a system don’t panic—they profit.
Happy Trading,
Phil