Bearish Theta Works While the Bulls Party Early | SPX Analysis 27 May 2025

Ahoy there Trader! ‍‍⚓️

It’s Phil…

The weekend news pops and pumps are getting beyond the pale!

Still, we trade mechanically. I closed the week on Friday (technically Thursday) with a bearish bias despite a bullish Tag ‘n Turn. Then I logged off, hit the beach with Mrs N – and then promptly spent Saturday in A&E after she caught her shin on a sharp corner. Lovely.

So yes, I paid the price for having a little fun – markets jumped 70+ points on Sunday night as Trump U-turned on the EU tariff. The bear position is underwater… but theta’s still grinding, and I’ve got eyes on 5840 for a clean switch.

Feet up. Film on. Acting nursemaid until the Tuesday bell rings.


📉 SPX’s story is only half the plot.

You’ve seen the SPX, but you’re missing the macro moves, crypto chaos, and the real reason gold’s stealing the spotlight..
Get the daily newsletter – short, sharp, and brutally honest.


SPX Market Briefing

Markets are closed today for Memorial Day in the US – but futures aren’t. And they’ve been busy.

Sunday evening, Trump stunned traders by shelving a planned 50% tariff on EU vehicles. Futures popped at the open and haven’t looked back. As of writing, we’re 70 points above Friday’s close.

Thursday, I closed shop early and bearish. Friday the system had a bullish Tag ‘n Turn in play – but I chose discretion, stayed bear, and chose the beach.

Then came Saturday’s emergency room trip. And Sunday’s news pop.

Do I regret it? Not at all. This is why we trade with structure – not urgency.

While the initial move stings, theta on the bear spread is still profitable. And if price cools back to 5840, I’ll gladly rotate into a bullish position. That’s the conservative entry – and the one I’ll wait for.

Several traders in the group raised smart points about the bullish entry. The upcoming 2025 SPX Income System update will reflect that:

  • Choice 1: Aggressive entry – tag + pulse bar = long

  • Choice 2: Conservative V-Shaped entry – wait for a pullback and right-shoulder break

I’ve started annotating charts with that green triangle to mark the V-entry zones. Simple to spot. Easier to trade. And coming soon in the official SPX Income materials.

Until then? Feet up. Long weekend continues. I’ll meet you at Tuesday’s bell.


Expert Insights

Mistake: Reacting emotionally to holiday weekend gaps
Why it hurts: Leads to panic trades and abandoning the system
Fix: Define both aggressive and conservative entries before the news hits

 


Fun Fact

Did you know the NYSE once closed for four days after JFK’s assassination?
Today, we close for barbecues and mattress sales.
Progress.


Happy Trading,

Phil

📉 SPX’s story is only half the plot.

You’ve seen the SPX , but you’re missing the macro moves, crypto chaos, and the real reason gold’s stealing the spotlight..
Get the daily newsletter – short, sharp, and brutally honest.

Scroll to Top